The rest of winter from January 2025 to March 2025 will be colder than normal with the coldest period from Jan. 5 to 25. The coldest temperatures will range from -35 C to -45 C with the coldest temperatures over the Great Lakes and northern Ontario. The coldest temperatures in the area are -40 C to -50 C in Churchill, MB.
Snowfall will be 150 per cent to 175 per cent above normal, just under double the January average. The start to the middle of January will be the snowiest part of the month. A.K.A., I don't think the coldest winter will be in eastern Canada.
Why? The stretched polar vortex will be over Hudson Bay Ont. but by mid-to-late January, the stretched polar vortex will retrograde to the west and stay there for the rest of the winter. What stretched polar vortex? Simply, it’s when the high pressure block in the west coast and Greenland blocks and stretches the polar vortex, buckling the polar jet streams and weakening the polar vortex causing it to invade Canada at first and then the eastern U.S. So, will the stretched polar vortex stay in Hudson Bay? The answer is no.
Why will it not stay there? There are three reasons why.
First, the North Atlantic Ocean is unusually warm, so the high block will strengthen and will make the polar vortex move to the west. The Alaskan blocking will weaken and usher colder air in.
Secondly, the La-Nina will get stronger by late winter so that will intensify the cold in the west as well.
Finally, a record cold Pacific decade oscillation (PDO). A cold Pacific decade oscillation means the west coast of the ocean is colder than the eastern Pacific Ocean. The greater the difference between the west and eastern Pacific, the more you have cold Pacific decade oscillation.
The coldest part of winter will be in February with risk of -50 C and multiple -40 C days.
The winter should 2 C to 3 C below normal with above normal snowfall.
So, enjoy the weather.
